#9: The Suburb Showdown: Data vs 16 Years on the Ground

[00:00:11] Melbourne will be hot throughout the day reaching a high of 38 degrees with a late change and possible thunder in the evening with a forecast low of 17 degrees. First time, second time, third and final time, it's sold!

[00:00:35] Hello Melbourne, I'm Lisa Parker and together with Cate we are bringing you a dose of our property market in detail. I'm Cate Bakos, Lisa and I are both buyer's agents who work on opposite sides of the Melbourne market and we've clocked up over 40 years between us in the property industry. Join us each fortnight to hear some exciting stories from our coalface, market trends and some juicy auction updates. This collaboration has been a long time coming, we hope you enjoy.

[00:01:08] Hello Melbourne and welcome to The Melbourne Property Hour. I'm Cate Bakos and Lisa Parker and I have got a very special episode in store for you today. It's love it or leave it. And you might be wondering what is she talking about? But today we're comparing theory with real on the ground experience.

[00:01:28] And I know a lot of people throw these expressions around, but we see so much AI interaction and desktop research guiding people, including buyers agents, to buy properties in locations that they might not be familiar with. And that's not something that we do. Our premise is understanding our markets intimately. So we've put our heads together and Lisa's decided to do the theory on two regions that I cover that she's not familiar with.

[00:01:58] And there are a couple of disclaimers that she'll go through with you. But I threw five suburbs at Lisa and we've had a lot of fun with this. These are suburbs that I've been very active in. I've bought in. I've been working in for over 10 years. In fact, over 15 years I've been working in these suburbs. And like anything, there's good, there's bad, there's indifferent. And today we're putting it to the test.

[00:02:23] Yeah, we're really putting it to the test here, Kate, because I mean, this could be make or break. We're putting our careers on the line here, aren't we? You're talking about it from your on the ground. I say that lightly. Yeah, a bit melodramatic. It is totally. Yeah, so I'm flying completely blind here. As Kate's mentioned, she's chosen the suburbs. They're suburbs that she knows well. I've never even driven to these areas or suburbs before.

[00:02:49] And so what I've done is some desktop research, looking purely at the data. And what I haven't done, which is something that I would normally do if I was getting to know an area, is I haven't picked up the phone and spoken to any sales agents, no rental managers. I haven't done any Googling on like Homely or anything like that to get perspectives or joined any community groups on Facebook to kind of understand the lay of the land.

[00:03:14] So they're all steps that I would typically do to get to know an area that was new to me. But I haven't done this because we really wanted to test when it comes to data versus on the ground knowledge, which one is better. Now, Kate's going to tell me, she's going to deliver the suburb to me. I'm going to do an analysis. I'm going to let her know whether or not I would love it or leave it. And then Kate's going to jump in and share her on the ground knowledge of the area.

[00:03:44] And we might even do a little bit of predictive stuff and come back and sort of look at how we did in a year's time to see how our predictions fared over the course of the year. So I'm super nervous and super excited at the same time. I feel like I've been studying for an exam and I'm here today to sit the exam to see if I pass or fail. Oh, I can't wait. I cannot wait. Well, let's start with a doozy. Are you ready? Okay. Okay.

[00:04:10] I've heard about this one on online chats and forums and, you know, you see it come up in Facebook groups and for me, I've got a strong opinion on it. So I'm going in hard with this first one. We're chatting about Corio in Geelong. All right. Over to me. Well, I think the first thing that's pretty evident when we start looking at the research, Kate, is that Corio has the lowest socioeconomic score of Victoria, which is a one out of 10,

[00:04:38] which means it sits in the bottom 10% of the whole of the stage. The other thing that's quite noteworthy is that there's a 40% renter to owner occupier rate. Now that's higher than the benchmark that we would personally prefer. It doesn't meet our personal benchmarks when we're looking for areas for clients. And the reason for that is because when we have a really high level of renters, the area tends to be quite volatile.

[00:05:03] We look at other areas like I'm kind of equating Corio with Frankston North because they share a few of the key demographics and a few of the key statistics. And when I look at Frankston North and the history of Frankston North, it's had high highs, but then it's had really quick lows as well. So it's usually shoots up when things are going well, but it really plummets when things stop going well. And so that's where the volatility comes into it.

[00:05:31] So when we have a higher level of owner occupiers, the owner occupiers, because they don't trade in and out of property as frequently as investors do. When the tides turn, investors will sell, whereas an owner occupier will stay. And that's where stability comes from in an area. And so the tolerance or ratio that we prefer to see personally within our business is around about 30% and maybe we'd look up to 35%. It doesn't mean that we wouldn't make an exception.

[00:05:59] However, that's the standard benchmarks that we would set. Now, Corio, depending on the data source that you look at, has pretty low days on market. Statistically, it's showing anywhere between 24 and 31 days. But I actually think because somebody asked me about a property in the area recently, I had somebody that I was doing some mentoring with, and they were looking at a property in the area. And we discussed the fact that properties were usually selling within the week.

[00:06:27] And so things are moving very, very quickly down there, maybe two weeks. Now, one of the things that is quite striking for Cryo, and this is a real plus, is that there's very, very limited stock. So the absorption rate on a monthly basis is basically all the stock that's hitting the market is going to be absorbed within two weeks, which is indicative of how quickly things are moving on the ground.

[00:06:52] So that's a really strong indicator for growth, despite those negative things that I've mentioned earlier. The other thing that's got going for it is that it's got extremely low building approvals and also a very low vacancy rate, just over 1%. There is a little bit of a caveat with that, however, because what I noticed is that over the long term, Cryo's vacancy rate has been trending up.

[00:07:19] So whilst it is still very, very tight, there is a long term trend for it to be that it's actually increasing. And so that's something to be mindful of for the future. Although with all the migration that we have and the housing shortage, perhaps we're shielded by that for a little while. One of the other things that I noted about the area is that it would take residents living in the area about 45 years to pay off a home, which is not affordable for people that are living there.

[00:07:49] And new demographics with higher incomes would need to move into the area to bring that number down. And that demographic shift occurs over a long period of time. It doesn't happen quickly. So we'd be waiting for quite a while for that to happen. Now, when I looked really closely, I drilled down a little bit. There are only a few pockets in the entire suburb that would meet our benchmark as far as social housing are concerned.

[00:08:16] Now, there's the whole area has a lot of social housing and some pockets is almost up to, I think from memory, it was about 45% or 50% in some pockets. And in those pockets, there's high unemployment. And when we drill down and look at the incomes of those areas, the vast majority of the pockets are all on lower incomes.

[00:08:41] There are a few areas that have really strong employment, but across the board, unemployment is also really high and crime is also high. The crime rates for the area is double compared to the rest of Victoria. And that's actually increasing, not decreasing with the most prevalent issues being theft and assault. The historical stats are really not great. Now, the other thing that I noted for the area when I looked at the Google Maps is that

[00:09:09] there's some high tension power lines across the area that people would need to be mindful of because it can affect evaluations. People are buying in at between 580 and 650. Now, on the surface, there are a few really compelling things that would make this suburb grow in value at the moment. And that's the really, really tight stock levels, the low building approvals, and the fact that

[00:09:36] stock is moving really fast and there's just not enough to keep up. So, what surprised me the most, Kate, about this suburb is that the 10-year growth average has been absolutely fantastic. Over the period of 10 years, it's grown 143%. Now, when I look at a lot of different suburbs, we're not seeing that same growth in those suburbs. And so, whilst we've got some things here that fundamentally make me quite concerned about

[00:10:05] the area, the growth on paper tells a very different story. And I think this is where data is really interesting because you don't get to have your biases. I've never been to the area. I don't know the area intimately. By looking at this data that I've collected, what I would assume is that we've got probably some social issues in the area. We've probably got some instability as far as renters are concerned.

[00:10:32] And the tenant pool is likely to bring some challenges that you might not find in another area, which we're going to dissect shortly. And that if you were an investor in the area, if it was me, I would be expecting not a smooth run, basically. And one last thing to note is that there has been a large site in the suburb that has been earmarked for more social housing. And I can't get the numbers because they're in the planning stage of this.

[00:11:02] And I'm not sure if it's still going ahead, but the site's been acquired and there's a big social housing development going on there that is going to increase the number of social homes in the area. And that's going to be interesting to see how that plays out. Yeah, I think your overview is quite incredible. I've always avoided Corio. I've driven through it many, many times on my way to the parts of Geelong where I am active.

[00:11:31] And I've known Geelong for a long, long time. And I've carried bias into my Geelong property selection process from years of childhood visits to Geelong. I've got cousins and family there and I've had a real affinity with the area. But Corio has always been one that I've been very dubious about. And I wanted to give Corio a go when the growth started to look good. And I looked into it a little further.

[00:11:59] I visited the area and it was still a no-go for me for all of the reasons that you've stated. And I think the surprising part that a lot of people might be horrified to hear me say is that Corio's 10-year growth story, I think, is a little bit of a pyramid. I think it's not a reflection on the gentrification or the rate of change of the area.

[00:12:22] I think it's a reflection on the affordability and the hype and the interstate and maybe intrastate investment in a pocket that people haven't taken the time to understand. And my fundamental issue with Corio is, as you mentioned, it's got a very high proportion of renters. And within that rental pool, it's got a very high proportion of social housing recipients.

[00:12:45] And the thing that's different about Corio to other areas that have had very significant numbers of social housing properties at an age where these properties are ready for renewal. I mean, if you drive through there, you'll see some of them are pretty awful fibro properties that if the government really checked them out, they'd probably say it's time to overhaul them. But we're not seeing privatisation. When you get areas like Frankston North, which I'm very familiar with, a lot of those have been privatised over the years.

[00:13:15] They're the solid brick homes or the brick veneer with the metal windows and they're a bit bomb proof. And an investor purchases off the government when it's been deemed no longer suitable and needing to be renewed. They sell it off to an investor and buy social housing elsewhere. We're not seeing that Corio. We're seeing, if anything, like you mentioned, more social housing going up in Corio. And as we see these houses being turned over, they're not really changing the mix.

[00:13:45] So my biggest concern about the area is that they're not creating a blend of social housing that's a bit more supportive of an area rejuvenating or gentrifying. So instead, we've got a lot of non-income earning families that are on social benefits and we've got high crime and we've got generational families that have been living there in social housing. And whether I sound snobby or not, I'm looking at this from an investor's point of view.

[00:14:15] Is this an area that's likely to change? Is it likely to socially get better? Are we likely to see those crime stats changing? I don't believe so. So I've given it a really wide berth. And when you physically go there, I don't feel great about Corio. The properties are run down. We're seeing a lot of subdivision and a lot of purchases from interstate people who believe that it's going to gentrify. And you can pick up, if you really try hard and the house is pretty rugged, you can get something under $600,000 that's subdividable. But do you want to subdivide it? And who are you selling to?

[00:14:45] And I think the biggest question that I ask myself when I'm targeting an area that I want to think will be gentrifying. There needs to be some evidence there that it is gentrifying and that people who are owner occupiers are wanting to move into the area and embrace it. And I don't think Corio is doing that at all. If you talk to anyone in Geelong and say, you know, do you want to give Corio a chance? It's not something that has support anywhere.

[00:15:11] So Corio for me is a leave it. Okay. All right. I'm going to wrap my thoughts up on each of them at the end because we've got three that we're going to do in the Geelong region. And I'd like to kind of give you my synopsis all in comparison with each other if I could. Perfect. Excellent. What's the next one, Kate? Moving on to the next one, we're doing Hearn Hill. Okay.

[00:15:37] Hearn Hill excited me a little bit because the stats to me look really good for what I assume to be a really good owner occupied area with a good demographic. So that's what I took from it. And I'll go through a few of the interesting data points, which I liked. It is a much higher socioeconomic demographic.

[00:16:05] So it's sitting roughly in the middle, like a five out of 10. Actually, they've got a similar renter to owner occupied ratio as Corio, which actually surprised me because I thought it would swing. When I looked at the stats for the demographic, I actually thought that it would swing closer to 30%, but it's actually at 38%. So it just sits underneath Corio, which surprised me. I thought it'd be closer to 30%. Now, the other things that I really liked about this area from a demographics point of view

[00:16:34] is that there is significantly less social housing. There's only two pockets where there's a bit of a concentration of social homes, which would be pockets that wouldn't meet our normal benchmarks, but there were plenty of pockets that didn't have any social homes at all. And there's a far greater percentage of higher income earners in the area overall. There's significantly less financial stress in the Hearn Hill area.

[00:17:02] Typically, the prices to get into this area seem to be about $800 to $900 is my estimate for what people are paying to get a nice walk-in ready home. There were a few isolated cases where you could get something that was in need of renovation for circa 600, which I think is an interesting play. I didn't spend too much looking at it, but if you're buying in to something that needs to be fully renovated at circa 600, there could be potential there to add value to a property

[00:17:32] and actually build in some equity because the resale values, I mean, I saw some homes that were actually selling in excess of $1 million. They were more substantially renovated and had extensions and offered more than your $800 to $900 price point. But it could be a great area, I think, for people who are looking at adding value through renovation. Now, the affordability is a lot stronger and that makes sense because you've got people

[00:17:56] who are more financially affluent in the area and it only takes roughly 38 years to own. Now, the ideal scenario, and this is really long gone for a lot of Australia, the ideal scenario is that it takes roughly 30 years to own a property. Now, I think with the cost of living and the cost of owning houses and the fact that incomes haven't kept up with all of those costs, I think ownership has really stretched out beyond

[00:18:22] what was typical and we're probably now looking at much longer years to own a property than we were previously. And so 38 is not too bad. I usually see anywhere between sort of 34 to 38 is quite common for a lot of the areas that we buy into because it's very hard to get things that are closer to that 30 year mark. Now, one thing that surprised me is that the time it takes to sell a home in Hearn Hill is a lot longer than it takes to sell in Cryo.

[00:18:52] And I'm going to suspect that's because of the buy-in price at the 800 to 900 mark. Perhaps there's less buyers in that market and it takes longer to sell. I would think that the buyers in that price point might be a little bit more prudent with what they're purchasing and they're likely to be investing in a property that they're going to live in for a long time. So it needs to match their needs and support their family throughout that 10 years where

[00:19:20] I think that there's probably a lot of investor activity in Cryo. So there's less scrutiny over the assets that they're selecting. It's just got to get in for a certain price and that's it. Whereas owner occupiers are looking for a more rigorous checklist of items to meet their brief. There are absolutely no building approvals currently for Hearn Hill. So stock levels in the future are going to be incredibly tight. Nothing's getting built.

[00:19:47] So no one's in there currently doing townhouses and knockdown rebuilds and things like that, which is really interesting. Now, the vacancy rate is just above 1% and the trend is sloping upwards a little bit as well, which is what we saw in Cryo too. And it looks like residents stay in the area for quite some time with ownership being roughly 10 years. And there's been some pretty solid growth over the last 10 to 20 years, about 108% growth in total.

[00:20:16] So on the surface, I would think that an area like this would grow more rigorously than an area like Cryo because some of the stats don't look great for Cryo. But the growth has actually been less bullish in Hearn Hill, although pretty consistent. And it's still, by any standard, a very good growth rate on a per random basis. So I loved Hearn Hill. I thought on the surface, I thought that would be an area that if I drove to it,

[00:20:46] I'd be excited about and I'd feel good about purchasing in. Well, your data so far is supporting the way that I feel about these locations. But I want to talk about my on-the-ground experience. I love Hearn Hill. I love it. And I picked it quite a while ago because it was an affordable option to the ones that my clients were priced out of, namely Geelong West, Manifold Heights and Newtown. And they're all lovely suburbs.

[00:21:13] And Hearn Hill was sort of like the more affordable, much more sleepy Nana and Grandad kind of suburb. So you see a lot of roses in the front yards. You see a lot of beautiful lawns with lots of pride, house pride all around the place. And you do get some very pretty, not so much period houses. There are a few. You can still pick up Californian bungalows there, but you're more likely to get your mid-centuries. But they're very, very pretty houses.

[00:21:44] Fantastic allotments. You haven't got a lot of subdivision around Hearn Hill. As you head west, there's the Rail Trail, which is no longer a rail. It's a trail. And the walk is absolutely gorgeous. And you've got some colleges around. These days, you're just starting to see, you know, cafes and wine bars popping up because it has gentrified. It's an area that's really undergoing a lot of change. And for all of the reasons that you mentioned, Lacer, it's very family friendly. And, you know, the next generation's kind of moving in there.

[00:22:12] And I think it was historically a much older area. So I'd be really keen to see what the median age movement has been over the last 15 years in Hearn Hill. Because I would confidently say that it's reduced very quickly because we've seen a lot of old people, you know, move on, going to homes, pass away. And the young families are targeting this area. And you've also mentioned the price points. The owner ox, especially those who have tradies in the family, they've loved doing these houses up.

[00:22:42] And they do up so beautifully. So there's a lot for me to like about Hearn Hill. And to your point, there's not a lot of social housing. A couple of little ones peppered around, but not very much. Even when we compare it to Geelong West, there's quite a few in West because it's so close to the city. You obviously want to give social housing recipients the best opportunity with access to, you know, to great things.

[00:23:05] And so that amenity and social housing count, you know, that's a correlation that we always see when we get close to the cities and, you know, all of the things that support a city. So back to your question around the historical growth. I think the last 10 years worth of growth, when we look at Geelong, is not something that we can rely on. And the reason that I say that, I think we need longer range data because we had COVID.

[00:23:33] We've had a lot of investors hitting Victoria in the last five years, particularly the interstate ones. We've got these data houses that are spitting out stats and telling people where to buy. And we've had a disproportionate amount of investor interest in the cheapy suburbs. We've really seen them rally hard. They've gone really well. So Corio, Nor Lane, you know, they've had exceptional growth because they're in such popular price points. You get a lot of investors saying, I want to get a house under $600,000.

[00:24:01] And that's why poor little Hearn Hill hasn't been getting the same amount of effort and energy from investors, because not everyone wants to spend $800,000 or $900,000 on a house. And if they do, a lot of them are saying, well, why don't we look at Melbourne? We can get something there, which is a valid thought. But if we're focusing on Geelong and all that it has to offer, and we're circling in on something that's rapidly becoming blue chip and joining the other two, as in Manifold Heights and Geelong West, I think Hearn Hill is absolutely on the map.

[00:24:30] To delve a little bit further, I don't really want to be in the outer west section of Hearn Hill because you're starting, well, once you get into Fyonsford, you can hear the freeway. No one wants to hear freeway noise. So I think for anyone that's jumping on board and going, yeah, I'm listening to Kate Bacos and Lisa Parker and let's target Hearn Hill. Go out there, do your homework. Don't just do a blind buy because you can't hear freeway noise when you're looking at data. It's not a scratch and sniff.

[00:24:58] If you also can't scratch the screen and see what the house smells like, so make sure inspecting as well. The next one, this will wrap up our Geelong sector. Bell Park. All right. Bell Park was an interesting one for me. I kept swaying on either side with Bell Park. So I just want to run through some of the important data that we've got there.

[00:25:24] So the demographic of Bell Park is probably the minimum that we like to see, which is about a three out of ten. It's just sitting under the middle bracket there, which is quite good. It means it's probably been a blue collar working area traditionally, I'm going to assume. Kate's smiling and nodding. So hit that one on the head by the looks of it.

[00:25:47] And we've got a rent-to-owner ratio of around about 30%, which is a target that we like to try to target wherever possible as the maximum range that we're looking at. Now, the other things that are quite interesting about the area is that people do like to live in the area for a considerable amount of time with the average years of ownership at around about 11 years.

[00:26:09] And we've also got reasonably tight stock on market, but the uptake of stock is a little bit slower than what we're seeing in Corio. It's usually taking about a month and a half for the stock to be absorbed. And so I'm not sure if there are different pockets perhaps in the area. Oh, I'll get another nod. Yes. Okay.

[00:26:31] Which may, you know, some of them may be well-received and well sought after while others may sit for a little while is the assumption that I'm making there. So the rate of builds is quite low, which is really good, which means there's not a lot of stock currently coming onto the market. However, I haven't had time to look into this.

[00:26:50] I did see something that said that it has been identified as an area where they're going to encourage higher density and not the highest kind of density, but just low to medium density, probably a few townhouses on a block type thing. I think I read somewhere maybe up to three stories in some locations. And so that really warrants a much deeper dive than I had time for in preparing for this episode today, where I'd be looking at exactly what those changes look like and where those areas are.

[00:27:20] Now, not that this is a designated activity centre, but I'll use the word activity centre just for the purpose of the conversation. But these types of activity centres are really interesting because they will bring a lot more buildings to the area. However, you've got to consider whether or not they're the types of housing that people want to actually buy and live in as an owner-occupied home. Quite often they could be small apartments or smaller townhouses that don't have great uptake from owner-occupiers.

[00:27:48] And so sometimes we can get these areas that have got those little sections that it's showing higher building approvals in the future when this all takes off. But it doesn't necessarily mean that the housing stock is affected because a lot of people want houses on their own block of land. They don't want to live in a townhouse necessarily. 25 days on market, which is really low. I'm assuming it's a private sale environment and not a auction environment there.

[00:28:16] So 25 days and possibly it's taking a lot less. But by the time things go unconditional and then they're marked officially as sold, it can stretch it out. So that looks like it's being taken up pretty quickly. Now, the vacancy rate is actually the highest here compared to all of the other suburbs that we've looked at at just over 2%, which is considered still tight. It's not as tight as the other areas.

[00:28:43] And we've got a sharp downward trend of it being tighter, so going downwards. Long term, it has been increasing, which is similar to all the areas we've looked at in Geelong. But there is a short term downward trend for vacancy rates, which means vacancy rates may be becoming tighter than they currently are. So Bell Park was a really interesting one for me.

[00:29:09] I kind of felt like it sat in a way between Corio and Hearn Hill and was like, if I was to categorise all three of the suburbs, I would say that Corio is showing probably the strongest statistics as far as supply and demand is concerned. But that is in the short term. And what I'm going to assume is that we've got a lot of investor activity behind those statistics.

[00:29:37] And so it's going to be more volatile than owner-occupier activity. In Hearn Hill, I'm going to assume we've got a lot more owner-occupied activity and it's a more stable and consistent and predictable area. And so for people who are wanting to buy either owner-occupied or investment that want something that's a little more stable, where the quality of the tenants is going to be a little bit more predictable, less issues to manage, then Hearn Hill would be my pick for a client with that type of profile.

[00:30:06] And Bell Park, I'm going to slide in there with potentially, like, you know, the horse that comes from behind and, you know, takes the lead. I'm like, is this suburb about to do that? Is something pretty cool about to happen with Bell Park? So I'm dying to hear your synopsis. I loved this review because there were so many aspects that you talked about. And I thought, yeah, I know the answer to that. And not because I've studied it.

[00:30:32] I mean, of course, I look at data when I go into an area, but I've been working this market for quite a while and I'm watching Bell Park change. So it's genuinely, genuinely gentrifying. And it's wedged between some interesting suburbs. So it sits alongside Hamlin Heights, which is considered a good suburb. I mean, that's kind of the bridesmaid to Hearn Hill, Hamlin Heights. It's, you know, at the back of the action suburbs and it's just a little bit further north.

[00:31:00] So on the trip from Melbourne, you'll hit Hamlin Heights before you hit Hearn Hill. So Bell Park sits between Hamlin Heights, North Geelong, Bell Post Hill and, drumroll, Nor Lane. And it's a big suburb. You know, it's got a street, separation street that sort of divides it. And then you've got the rail line that further divides it. So when I'm buying there, I won't say yes to all of Bell Park.

[00:31:26] You know, there are streets that I'm still not loving, but there are streets that I absolutely love. There's a really lovely pocket and it's a pretty big pocket. That's obviously the southern one that's closer to Hamlin Heights. I'm going to go through the things that you talked about, Lisa, because for me, Bell Park is a yes. I've been buying there and I've loved its performance and I love its character and I love its potential. And I'm really enjoying its rate of change, social change. It has been home to homeowners for a long time who were blue collar workers.

[00:31:54] And for anyone who knows Geelong really well, if you worked at the Ford factory, you probably lived in Bell Park or very close to it. You know, if you live close to work, that was a suburb to live in. And we've seen a lot of change initiated in Geelong since Ford closure. It was very painful for Geelong. So, you know, I talk about Geelong's renewal and its rate of change and how it's just transformed from a working city, you know, an industrial city to a really beautiful city.

[00:32:21] But that Ford plant closure, you know, that was the hallmark of that. And it was one of the causes of it as well. So it's painful for people to hear as it is. That's the reality. We've now got the spirit of Tasmania that moves from Geelong now. It's no longer at Port Melbourne. They had a disagreement with the Port of Melbourne and decided to go to the Port of Corio. So you go to North Shore to catch that ferry to Tasmania. And, of course, what that's done is it's brought more people.

[00:32:49] There's been a lot of funding into Geelong for, you know, the Great Ocean Road and the things around the city, not just in the city. And then if you go to the water precinct, the Eastern Beach, Western Beach, you know, there's been a lot of money that's gone into Geelong. And North Geelong is no stranger to that. So, of course, Bell Park, that's right by North Geelong. You've also got North Geelong Station. So you can get into Melbourne. You can jump on the V-line.

[00:33:14] But what I really love about Bell Park is there's a lot of those rock solid houses, you know, 50s, 60s houses, the brick and tile properties with the metal windows. I was talking about Frankston North before. Well, there's a lot of that kind of construction in Bell Park. And they make really great renovators because you can go in and sand the floors, paint the walls, change the light fittings, drop in a new kitchen, new bathroom. And all of a sudden, you've got a great property, whether it's a great home or a great rental.

[00:33:43] And you talked about the vacancy rates, Lisa. If you go to Bell Park, you can hear trades humming in just about any street that you're in. There's, you know, trucks parked out the front. There's tradies, utes everywhere. People are renovating. And I can't help but think that the houses that aren't on the rental market yet that are vacant because they're getting renovated, they're playing a part in those statistics. That's my thinking. And I might be wrong. I haven't cross-checked it. But as soon as you said it, I was kind of nodding.

[00:34:11] And I'd love to also see the median age at Bell Park because I think over time that's probably changed as well. We've had a lot of oldies move out and youngies move in. And I think it's proximity to everything, particularly North Geelong and the city, it will hold it in good stead going forward. And there's not a lot of subdivision activity happening in Bell Park.

[00:34:35] And you really do need a price tag in the sevens, like a budget in the sevens to buy there. But you can get a rock-solid property for mid-sevens in Bell Park. And I think it is one to watch. I think it is like that horse coming up the side. But we've got to keep it in perspective. If you've got a budget that's sub-eight, that's a suburb that you might want to look at. But investors are fueling a lot of pockets of our regions, including, you know, Geelong's cheaper pockets.

[00:35:05] So Bell Park has definitely had its fair share of investors. But it's a very different approach and mindset to Corio, Norline investors. So it sounds like Corio, you're leaving it? Yeah, 100%. Hern Hill, you're loving it? Mm-hmm. And Bell Park, you're loving it? Loving it. Okay. You didn't know that I was going to do this.

[00:35:30] I turned to AI and I said, which suburb is going to give the best growth? Do you want to know what it said? I'm hoping it didn't say Corio. It sure did. Do you know what we do, though, as investors? We tend to look at recent growth. And then a lot of investors and buyers agents look at the 10-year pattern. Because you assume, well, you know, a decade that tells a story.

[00:35:54] What I will say about Victoria is it's a really lumpy, bumpy story. Because 10 years ago, we were in 2016. I'm dating our recording now. I didn't want to do that. But to illustrate my point, we've had a lot of bumps along the way. We've had a rollercoaster ride that, as an investor and certainly as a buyer's agent, I've never seen such crazy times. So we had our market peak in 2017, 2018 in Victoria.

[00:36:24] And then when things got really hectic with, you know, the 2019 credit was, it had grown to a halt. We had the Banking Royal Commission. We had Bill Shorten coming out saying that we were going to lose negative gearing. It got really tough. And that late 18 and then early 19 downturn was horrible. And then we had the election result we didn't anticipate. It was FOMO back on again. And then a year later, not even, like 10 months later, we hit COVID.

[00:36:52] And that was horrible as well. And then all of a sudden, people started looking at what they could buy outside of Melbourne. And Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Macedon Ranges, Peninsula, Surf Coast, like everything went off like a bomb. And so we saw all of this really crazy behavior in Geelong. And a lot of people were grabbing cheapies because they wanted to hold their home in Melbourne and then see what they could buy, where they'd, you know, be outside of the Ring of Steel and they'd have a bit of freedom.

[00:37:19] And then we had our interest rate increases applied from 2022, 23, and we saw the market pull back again. So we have had such a roller coaster. I don't think that 10 years tells a good story. So what I like to do when I look at my data is 20 here and 30 here. The further back you can get, the better information you're working with. Yeah, you're right. I think we could probably chop out the last five years for Melbourne for any sort of predictability at all,

[00:37:47] because like you've just illustrated, it's been sideways, upside down, back to front. You know, it's done everything in the last five years. It's crazy. So my pick when we're wrapping up the Geelong region, I think I'm going to lean into Bell Park as my choice for the area for an investment location. And the reason for it is because it's at a price point where I think that there's a lot of room for growth. When I look at Hearn Hill, I love the demographic of Hearn Hill.

[00:38:16] If I was looking for an owner occupier, out of the three of them, I'm choosing Hearn Hill. The Hearn Hill's entry price, we're at $850,900. At Bell Park, we're at $750,000 to $750,000-ish. And so I think it's got more room to grow. I don't think it's going to be doing anything absolutely smashing, you know, standout 20% growth or anything like that. But I feel like it's one of those emerging suburbs that are going to come to the front and we're going to see some good solid growth over the next five years.

[00:38:45] And so I'm loving Bell Park and that one's my pick for the Geelong region. Yay. It's been a lot of fun cruising Geelong and I just picked out three. I picked them out because they all have a story to tell. But there are so many great suburbs in Geelong. It is a wondrous place. And, you know, price points alone, if you're looking at mid-sevens, don't just focus only on Bell Park. There are some other goodies there too. But you can see what we've done.

[00:39:11] We've put our heads together with some local food on the ground experience and some data. And it gets you a long way. But when they're in tandem, it's great. When they're in solitude, it can be messy. We'd love to hear how some of our tips are helping you on your property journey. If you'd like to get in touch with us, jump onto our website, themelbournepropertyhour.com.au. You can either leave us a written message or you can record it as a message.

[00:39:40] Let us know what you'd like to hear more of and tell us a little bit about some of your successes. If you're enjoying the show, please tell your friends and click the follow button on your preferred podcast platform. Okay, we are jumping in our Learjet and flying for two minutes because they go fast. And we're landing in Ballarat. I love Ballarat. Everyone knows I love Ballarat.

[00:40:07] I've picked out two suburbs today for you to analyse and I'm very familiar with both of them. The first one we're going to chat about is Wendouree. So buckling. Wendareen. Okay. So I feel like you've kind of thrown me Corio in Geelong and then you've thrown me Wendaree in Ballarat. And there's a lot of parallels I find.

[00:40:35] So let's dive in and see what I've got here for my notes. All right. So bottom of the ranking as far as socioeconomics are concerned with a one out of 10, which means bottom of 10% for socioeconomics. And we're looking at about a 43% renter to own occupied ratio, which is quite similar from memory to Corio.

[00:41:01] So they're two numbers I don't personally like to see. If I'm seeing those numbers, I probably want to be buying in at around about $300,000 to $400,000. And once the prices are getting up there, then I think that the area is going to have a lot more volatility. Again, it's not affordable for the residents living in the area. And so we would need to see a considerable demographic shift with much higher incomes moving into the area before that area became affordable to the locals.

[00:41:31] Now, very interestingly, we've got extremely low building approvals and we've got extremely low stock on the market. And the stock is being absorbed quite quickly with only half a month's supply. Now, out of all of the areas that we've looked at, people don't live there for as long as they do in other locations. Now, we've got a 34 days on market.

[00:41:58] However, when I looked at the past year's growth rate, which shocked me, but I've got a theory around it. I think from memory, the past 12 months growth rate has been around about 17%, which is huge, huge. Yeah. And so I would expect to see much lower days on market in that location. So I don't know. Sometimes buying in regionals is a little bit different than buying in metro. So I don't know if there's some things about that that I don't know and don't understand.

[00:42:28] We're looking at a vacancy rate of just about 2%, which is not too bad. And we're looking at that vacancy rate just trending up slightly over the long term and also the short term. Because I'm going to assume that the reason for that 17% growth is really strong interstate buyer agent activity and interstate investor activity. And that's why we're going to be seeing those vacancy rates increasing.

[00:42:58] Because sometimes we get large buyer advocacy firms that might be doing 40 to 100 purchases per month. And they go in and they dominate an area. And I'm going to make a guess that this is one of their target areas. Kate's smiling. So I think I've got that right. You would be right. Okay. Yeah. Excellent. Okay.

[00:43:34] So it's all pointing to that bottom of the 10% socioeconomic area that all feeds into that and why it gets a score of 1 out of 10. There's also extremely high levels of unemployment. And like Corio, the crime rate for the area is extremely high. It's double what it is for Victoria in general. So when we looked back at Bell Park and also Hearn Hill, it was below Victoria's average.

[00:44:00] Whereas this area and Corio are almost double or beyond double of the average across Victoria, which leads to a lot of social issues, obviously. And I kind of feel like this area is so similar to Corio in so many ways. So I'm not loving this area. I think I'd leave it. So I think it's going to be high volatility, high risk.

[00:44:26] And an interesting one because it has had good growth over the span of 10 years. But I'm not sure how much of that has been pushed in the last year or so by interstate investors flocking to the market. And we know that when we get those interstate investors coming in and the interstate BAs, we know that they'll push an area really hard. And we can see, you know, 100 grand growth in a really short period of time.

[00:44:50] And then after they leave the area, the area stagnates and doesn't grow for a considerable amount of time unless there is take up from locals buying into the area. But this demographic is not buying homes locally. They're more likely to rent and not be purchasers. So I'm concerned for the longevity of this area. I think it's going to be quite volatile. And I would really feel quite uncomfortable about putting a client into this area.

[00:45:19] It feels high risk to me. Isn't this interesting? So I knew that Wendouree would be one of our biggest, most unusual discussion points. Because for me, I'm going to say this with a caveat. Love it or leave it? Love it. Really? But imagine Wendouree is like a tub of Neapolitan ice cream and you don't like the vanilla. And you just like eat all the chocolate and strawberry and you put it back in and it's always got like a third of it sitting in the freezer. That's how I treat Wendery.

[00:45:48] So if I'm purchasing in Wendery, the locals know Wendery as everything that's east of Gilley Street North. If you go west of Gilley Street North, you're sitting in this triangle between Learmont Street and Gilley Street North. That's actually known as Wendery West. The locals know it inside out. Property managers know it inside out. BAs, interstate, they clearly don't because I'm watching them buy stuff in Wendery West. And I treat that like Corio.

[00:46:17] I never, ever buy there. But Wendery itself, particularly when you're in that very front portion of Wendery, there's the block that has like all of the university names for the streets. You've got Prefect Street, Cambridge Street. It's a really nice pocket. Lucy talked about the employment rate. Wendery, old Wendery itself had a lot of elderly people, retirees, like nannas and granddads.

[00:46:45] You see some beautiful roses in the front yards, a little bit like what I was saying with Hearn Hill. And as you get towards the back of Wendery, so you go to the north, you can hear the freeway. And it's not quite as great. And that subdivision kind of happened in the 80s. And so you can see the difference in housing styles. But if we separate Wendery West from Wendery and just focus on Wendery itself, I've got a lot of good things to say about the area.

[00:47:11] The only reason why I won't target it now, there's only one reason, is it's bubble territory. Because interstate BAs who do massive volumes have pushed up the prices to silly levels. And the reason I say silly levels is I can purchase in areas that I would consider even better than Wendery for the same price. Because for some silly reason, they've just got Wendery on their radar and nothing else. But Wendery West, that's where your high crime is.

[00:47:38] It's where really, really large numbers of social housing are sitting. And I know property managers that will not manage anything in Wendery West, which is a really big thing to hear. When you've got a property manager saying, yeah, no, I'm sorry, I don't want that business. That's significant. So Wendery itself, if you just look at the postcode, 3350, I think it is, you can't tell the difference between Wendery West and Wendery because postcode's the same. In fact, on the Google map, it just says Wendery.

[00:48:08] But the locals know it. And the buyers, they really need to get their head around it. If you went down to Wendery, you went to Ballarat and checked it out, I'm not sure that some of these investors who are bullish about buying cheap stock would feel great about their investment. I'm not excited about driving through Wendery West. It's not an area that I like to frequent. I feel unsafe. And I feel just really sad about the area. It's not a pocket that I've earmarked for growth.

[00:48:36] And I think for the same reason as Corio, the numbers of social housing as a ratio are not changing at all. They're not privatising them. And I think it's very generational. Now, in Wendery's defence, there's a couple of interesting points to make. You've got the train station. So Ballarat has two train stations, Ballarat itself, Ballarat Central. And then you've got Wendery Station and you've got a gigantic shopping centre.

[00:49:00] But if you head south along that Gilly Street, you get to some of the nicest schools that Ballarat has to offer. And they're seriously nice schools. So it's a very interesting pocket to consider because you've got quite an affluent area, not very far away from an area that I think is really troubled. And the origin of Wendery West is really interesting.

[00:49:25] In the 1956 Olympics that were held in Melbourne, Ballarat had the rowing on the lake. And so they were the athletes' properties that they built. And, you know, like we've seen in Heidelberg West where we had Olympic Village, it's the same sort of thing in Wendery West. Well, that was fun having a little bit of a wild card.

[00:49:47] So I think that really illustrates that, you know, I was feeling a little bit like, oh, I've nailed this, you know, because you were nodding when I was surmising and saying, well, this is how I'm reading the data and this is what I think it means in reality. And, you know, I got that right for Jalom. But to have that thrown in there, I think just illustrates how important local knowledge is and because I would not have known that. I wiped the suburb.

[00:50:16] I said I'm leaving it. I wiped it. So maybe I missed out on a really great opportunity there because I just didn't know what I didn't know. Yeah, it's a lot of really lovely pockets in Wendery. And if I took you to, you know, any of those beautiful streets around Prefect Street, College Street, you'd be pretty impressed. Gorgeous houses. And the tenure can be really good as well. I've had a lot of clients that have had long-term tenures with really lovely, respectful tenants.

[00:50:46] So, yeah, it's a postcode thing, isn't it? Because if you're not getting the data segmented in an area that really it should be, you're not getting the real story. I was driving Ian's Lexus when I took clients once and they're like, oh, can we see this place you're telling us not to go to? I was like, yeah, sure, let's drive through it. And someone threw a beer can in his car. Gosh. Wow. Okay. Well, I'm feeling really nervous for the next one now.

[00:51:14] I was sitting pretty and now you've rocked my world and I'm really not sure how I'm going to do on this next one now. So we're jumping over to Ballarat East and I feel nervous, I've got to say. So this one felt similar to me as how I felt about Bell Park. I felt like I was in one moment I was leaning to a leave it and the next minute I was leaving to a hang on a second.

[00:51:38] And so the statistical story here has a lot of parts that don't all line up and tell a beautiful, clear story. And so I don't know how this is going to land. So let's just go for it. So the last 12 months growth has actually been reasonably strong at about 12 to 13%, which is great. It's fantastic growth. So renter to owner occupy ratio is around about 39%. It's sitting a little bit higher than what we would like. Not too scary.

[00:52:06] We've got a socioeconomic score of about three out of 10. That's good entry level. I would dare say, again, blue collar working area. The amount of years to own is 38, which is not too bad. It's higher than what we'd ideally like for a three out of 10 demographic, but it's okay. So we've got about a month's worth of stock on the market and building approvals.

[00:52:33] It's tight, but it's not as tight as some of the other areas. So I'm not sure what's happening in that area because from the data, I surmised that there must be quite a few retirees living in the area. I didn't look at medium ages or anything like that. I didn't dive into that level of research, but I guessed that there would be a higher number of retirees. So I'm not sure if maybe elderly people are selling out

[00:53:02] and younger people are buying in and developing. I don't know what's causing those building approvals, or maybe there's just a little section of the suburb that's recently been developed for new housing, like house and land packages or something. I don't know. We'll hear from Kate shortly. She's not giving much away here on camera. So hold period just under the 10 year mark. And we've got about 35 days on market, which isn't super fast, but it's also not lagging terribly. So it's not too bad.

[00:53:31] We had a really tight vacancy rate of under 1%. So that's really interesting. Very, very tight, both long-term and short-term. The stock in the area is contracting for rentals. Not a great thing for renters, but a positive thing if you're an investor. Building approvals in general have consistently been trending down for a really long time. And so there's just this little spike.

[00:53:57] So I can't wait to hear from Kate on what that is actually about. And there was some interesting information just in regards to the incomes for the area. So I found that generally speaking, there was consistent social housing scattered throughout the suburb, but for the most part, it was very low levels. It would be most of the air, most of the pockets seem to be at a level that would, that would hit our benchmarks,

[00:54:26] that would pass our minimum benchmarks for our clients. There were just a few sections that were a tiny bit higher that we would weigh up after I'd driven the area and kind of got to know it a lot better. So it seemed like there was a really good spread also of owner-occupied homes and actually quite a few people who owned their home outright. And that's what made me think that there were a lot of retirees because combined with that data set,

[00:54:52] there was high unemployment in areas where, in the same pockets where there was high unemployment, there was high home ownership, as in own the property outright. And so that's why I'm guessing that certain pockets have a very aging population. There's a lot of higher income earning professionals living in the area as well. It's not like really high, but there were enough that it was a notable category of people.

[00:55:22] So there's two things happening here because whilst there are pockets where there's higher income earners, there's also a lot of lower income earning people in the area too. And maybe that ties into what I was saying before about the retirees. I'm dying to know how to do this. This is where I got confused because there was so much conflicting information here. Okay, so crime rates in Ballarat actually almost double what it is across Victoria.

[00:55:51] So I haven't isolated that down into micro pockets, but across the board, it's actually quite high. But it is on the decrease, which is signaling potentially a little bit of a demographic shift that's happening in the area. So, Kate, I'm stuck on this. You need to come to my rescue here. Tell me. Yeah. Ballarat East. I absolutely love it. Okay. But it's the chameleon suburb. It's a very big suburb.

[00:56:19] So you look at the map of Ballarat and you see just how much geographic space is contained in this one suburb. There are pockets of it that I avoid, like any suburb. But there are some seriously yuck pockets in Ballarat East. And unfortunately, when our governments invest in social housing, clustering it all together, in my opinion, is not great. And unfortunately, in Ballarat, that's what they've tended to do, particularly in Ballarat East. You've got these pockets, these bunches of streets

[00:56:47] that you drive past them and you will be guaranteed to see a divvy van. And I know that sounds dramatic, but it's true. And then you've got pockets within Ballarat East, especially above Eureka Street and towards the city. And I'm talking, you know, this suburb, I know Ballarat's cold, so you wouldn't want to go strolling every single day. But if you put on your puffer jacket, you can walk into town very, very easily. So you're getting some really old miners' cottages. You know, this is a beautiful

[00:57:16] provincial city that thrived during the gold rush. And some of the poorer miners' cottages were built in the East. And so I've been watching it gentrify for a long time. I think the good pockets of Ballarat East have been gentrifying for decades. So you talked about investment building starts. Some of these blocks are dual street frontages and they're on like 1,200, 1,500 square metres. I've bought blocks that are almost 2,000 square metres, which is insane when you know that you can put on your puffer jacket and walk into the city in under 20 minutes.

[00:57:46] That's a lot of very valuable land. So that's what we've been seeing happening in Ballarat East. A lot of subdivisions. You just need two of those long blocks to sell at the same time to the one purchaser. And then they get a DA to do a bunch of townhouses with a central drive. And sometimes they've even been able to gazette the street. And so you've now got this little private street with all of these townhouses off it. You're getting a lot of that activity in Ballarat. Now, if you drive in on Victoria Street, the locals call it the Melbourne Road

[00:58:16] because it comes in off the freeway when you're coming in from Melbourne. There's a really big site that was purchased about five years ago and that's had a massive number of houses built on it. It's quite a significant development and I'm sure that that's what's giving you your spike in your values. And some of those properties, they're lovely and the owner appeal is strong and the locals are buying in there. So it's not like it's getting flooded with investor activity and people are just buying stuff with high depreciation. You've got a lot of locals saying I want some of that. Now, you also touched

[00:58:45] on older people. Ballarat is an older city. Unfortunately, when you look at the demographic profile, you see a lot of the educated young ones as soon as they're ready for uni, they go to the city and they get work, they don't come back. Now, Ballarat has a great uni, Fed uni, but not everyone who grows up in Ballarat studies at Ballarat uni. In fact, it gets a lot of people coming in from the city and not just Melbourne, you get Adelaide kids as well. So we've seen this sad void of all of your young working age people

[00:59:15] which has really pushed the Ballarat median age up because people come back when they're older or the oldies that have stayed on there. They're showing up in the data. Now, in Ballarat East, when the house gets too much for them and they sell it for a nice profit to someone who's going to do a development or cut off the backyard because it's dual street frontage and they'll put a nice house on the other side and you've still got an 800 square metre block because you've just chopped your 1600 square metre block in half. We're seeing a lot of that and these oldies are then buying

[00:59:44] into the new builds because they want something that's, you know, really low maintenance and still nice and close. So it's a really fascinating suburb. I love it. I love the architecture or the character I probably should say because you can't really call a miner's cottage something with higher degrees of architecture. I mean, they'll put together 150 years ago and they've got their own quirks but there are some things about Ballarat East that people need to know as well. We've got some creeks so some waterways

[01:00:14] in Ballarat and quite a few in Ballarat East. Now the Water Authority are resetting their flood mapping and you need to be all over this because if they're increasing the risk level that they're considering for residents it can have an impact on insurances as well and desirability. I mean, you don't want to be hit with a flood overlay. No one wants that. So you've got to really do your DD when you're buying in this area. Also, you need to have a look at how you get into town because there's some

[01:00:44] really good bus routes so don't be right on it but be near it and lastly what I'd say about Ballarat East is I spoke earlier about the social housing. It is problematic when you land yourself in the wrong pocket so it's definitely, definitely one to visit. It's interesting that you talk about the water authorities updating the data for that because it was flagged as a small flood risk. When I was looking at the mapping the overlays haven't actually

[01:01:13] been applied to the mapping yet so that answers that question for me about why it was being flagged as a potential risk but I couldn't see any evidence of it in the mapping so that's good. Oh gosh, wow, okay, that was exciting and big and interesting those, I've got to say those last two really threw me a curveball. I did not expect you to say that you're going to love Wendery. I was going to leave it maybe now I'll reconsider if I'm going to buy there

[01:01:43] then obviously I'll need to speak to you because you know exactly what you're talking about and Ballarat East I was like this is one that I'd actually look into with more detail and make a decision after I'd explored it in more detail but it just goes to show an experienced advocate 24 years used to analysing all of these things I've got three out of the five suburbs in alignment with Kate's understanding from her on the ground knowledge but the last two I clearly

[01:02:13] could not get a real read just from data alone which tells us that we really do need a combination of both I think. Yeah, I think so too. I was absolutely blown away by your data and it was wonderful seeing some of those things playing out in real life I was looking at my cold face information that I've got on hand and listening to your data thinking absolutely I can see where all of this fits but like anything you know you've got to have someone

[01:02:43] who knows the area inside out and you're not about to start buying in Ballarat tomorrow I know how you roll like you'll be all over it for a year or two before you decide to do it and I think that's the point when people are investing and putting all their trust in an advocate you really want someone who knows the area. Do you want to know AI's prediction for which area would make the best investment for growth out of Ballarat East and Wendouree? I'm going to say Ballarat East. Okay

[01:03:13] I personally would pick Ballarat East based purely on the data now I'd reconsider based on what I know about you but AI is saying best for growth is Wendouree. I'm worried about AI there's just been so much investment activity in Wendouree it's been ridiculous and while I say I love Wendery I can't touch it right now I won't go there while it's doing what it's doing and I can speak to agents they're all shaking their heads and saying it's insane Kate

[01:03:43] I don't understand what the thing is with Wendery and all these interstate BAs and they're sometimes getting 20 offers before they've opened a property for inspection so you know a lot of these BAs are saying send us an agent video and they're just throwing offers at them and that's a sign of a really overheated market and a lot of FOMO and a lot of risk taking and it's just not something that I want to partake in. It's great if you've got in at the ground floor when you've had all of this activity

[01:04:12] is just entering the market but as soon as what I know about these larger investment houses and interstate investors is when they go cold on an area they go cold like it will switch off overnight and we've both seen that in different locations and look I was much the same when I was seeing it in pockets that I've been purchasing in for 10 to 15 years and we had the big interest from interstaters we pulled the pin because it was too volatile as soon as those investors walked

[01:04:42] and they started buying in other locations I was concerned for what that meant for the suburb after they pulled up stumps and left so you and I have exercised the same strategy there it seems wow okay that was a big session today thank you for hanging in there with us listeners and I hope that that's been an interesting listen thank you so much Kate for sharing your wealth of knowledge for those areas you've been buying in both regions for was it 15 years

[01:05:12] roughly yeah so you really know both of those areas both those regions inside out and back to front yeah I love them oh today's been so much fun and to all of our listeners the Melbourne Property Hour has absolutely delivered you on it it sure has thank you for joining us on today's episode of the Melbourne Property Hour we hope you've enjoyed the show and we look forward to you joining us next time

[01:05:43] we can't leave Jamie without jokes today because we are mostly my fault apologies Jamie yet again have caused him so much work today getting through that episode and working out what to cut out and what to leave in all right Jamie this one's just for you even though Kate's still eavesdropping what do you call an ageing snowman a puddle